Palm Oil Trends — August 2026

Current price snapshot

Palm oil prices have firmed through the middle of 2026. As of July, prices stood at roughly $1.36/kg in Northeast Asia, $1.13/kg in Southeast Asia, and $1.75/kg in North America. Crude palm oil in China moved from around 8.75 RMB/kg in January to 9.25 RMB/kg by March — a 6% rise over the quarter — reflecting tighter feedstock supply and stronger buying interest.

What’s driving the market

Supply has been the key swing factor. Reduced output from major producing origins has kept crude palm kernel oil availability tight, while Malaysia’s palm kernel oil stocks fell for a third consecutive month to a seven-month low in early 2026 — a signal that has underpinned firmer pricing and buyer urgency across the complex.

On the regulatory side, the EU’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) — now postponed to take effect in December 2026 — continues to shape compliance-linked pricing, with EUDR-compliant crude palm kernel oil trading at a premium over non-compliant supply.

Outlook

Market analysts broadly expect a firm price environment through the first half of 2026, supported by steady food and biofuel-sector demand. Longer term, structural demand drivers — biodiesel mandates, oleochemical growth, and rising Asian and African consumption — are expected to provide a price floor even where supply grows.

What this means for buyers

Buyers locking in supply contracts should expect continued firmness rather than a return to the oversupplied conditions of recent years. Working with a partner who tracks these shifts in real time — and can time procurement accordingly — remains one of the simplest ways to manage cost exposure.

This report reflects publicly available commodity market data as of August 2026 and is intended as a general market overview, not trading advice. Prices are updated periodically — check back for the latest figures.

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