African Commodity Outlook — August 2026

The headline picture

Africa’s trade position continues to strengthen into the second half of 2026. Merchandise exports across the continent grew 14% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, the second-fastest regional growth rate in the world after Asia, driven largely by precious metals, gold, copper, fertilisers and ores — though cocoa and fuel exports softened over the same period.

Growth outlook

Regional growth forecasts remain broadly positive. The UN Economic Commission for Africa projects continental growth accelerating to 4.0% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, supported by greater macroeconomic stability across several large economies. The IMF’s Sub-Saharan Africa outlook is similarly constructive, with regional growth expected to reach 4.3% in 2026, aided by higher oil and metal prices for resource-exporting economies.

Intra-African trade is accelerating

One of the most significant shifts underway is the growth of trade within Africa itself. Intra-African trade is forecast to grow 10% in 2026, reaching roughly $230 billion, as African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) implementation accelerates and payment infrastructure improves across the continent.

What this means for buyers

For international buyers sourcing from Africa, the picture is one of resilience alongside volatility — strong underlying growth and diversifying trade routes, but continued sensitivity to global shipping disruption, commodity price swings, and debt-servicing pressures across some economies. This is exactly why supplier verification, transparent logistics, and an experienced sourcing partner matter more in a growing but still-developing trade environment, not less.

This report reflects publicly available trade and economic data as of August 2026 and is intended as a general market overview, not investment or trading advice. Figures are updated periodically — check back for the latest outlook.

Raholu International Trade simplifies international sourcing across Africa by managing supplier identification, procurement, quality assurance, export coordination and logistics — giving your business one trusted partner from enquiry to delivery.